Its been nearly one week since the Colts collapse at home against Pittsburgh, and the disappointment has yet to fade. It was a year of such high expectations, a year in which the Colts threatened to go undefeated throughout the regular season, dominated in nearly every game they played, had locked up home field advantage throughout the playoffs, had secured a first round bye that was actually nearly a month long, and had the pleasure of seeing the Patriots knocked out of the playoffs by Denver. But, yet again, it was a year that in the end can only be considered a failure. That being said, fans of the sport were treated to one of the great games in NFL playoff history on that fateful Sunday afternoon; a game with story lines so intriguing that they cannot escape attention.

Peyton Manning Can't Win the Big Game

Since his college career at Tennessee when Florida was the key rival, Peyton Manning has been accused of being "unable to win the big game." With performances like the 2004 let-down against the Patriots in which the Manning-led Colts, who had been stellar in the regular season and in the playoffs to date, were only able to muster 3 measly points. From a cursory glance, the argument that Manning can't lead his team to victory seems to have merit. But what the critics neglect is football is a team sport. Last I checked, the offensive line of the Colts allowed 5 sacks of Manning against Pittsburgh and 4 sacks against San Diego in the 2005 regular season. And, Peyton Manning is the architect of at least 16 fourth quarter comebacks. There is no question in my mind that the Colts without Peyton Manning would be just ordinary. Colts GM, Bill Polian, on an interview on WFAN, refused to make Peyton shoulder the blame for the loss, chosing instead to blame the O-line. Well, the facts are that Manning DOES deserve some of the blame for the loss, particularly with play selection on the final drive after the recovery of the Bettis fumble -- if Peyton choses to throw it in the flat or audibles to a run to Edge on 2nd and 2 rather than go for it all, it is likely that the result of this game would be different. But these are the choices that players make -- players who believe in themselves, who have proven that they can do it in the past, and who are caught up in the heat of the moment on the field. The real question becomes, however, will the Colts alter the play calling on offense, going away from the "on-the-field" player-coach strategy that they have practiced in years past, to a more traditional sideline-led offense? That remains to be seen. But I think for now, you are dealing with an MVP quarterback on a team with unparalleled talent that just doesn't seem to be able to get it done in the post season. Is it all Peyton's fault? No. Is he partly responsible for the loss? Yes.

If anyone but Harper recovers the ball, the Colts win.

After suffering from a knife wound to his right knee / thigh on the day before the game, Nick Harper, the Colts starting cornerback, required three stitches and was listed as questionable to start. Of all the players to recover the Bettis fumble, why oh why did it have to be Harper, a player who had earlier in the same game gone off the field after suffering from a helmet to that same right thigh? And, why did Harper cut his run back to the inside when he could have followed blockers to the outside to run it back for a potential score? These are questions that can never be answered. But what the play does show is just how much the Colts have improved on defense. While there is no question that there are holes in the defense, allowing Ben Roethlisberger to throw to wide open receivers in the middle of the field in the game's opening quarter and go up by two touchdowns, the defense rose to the occasion when it needed to, giving the Colts at least the opportunity to win the game. For years, Colts fans have been cursed with a defense that was entirely a liability; that could not be counted upon to make big plays. But this year was different. Consider Cato June's 6 interceptions as a LB, Dwight Freeney's game changing pressure on the QB, Bob Sanders' guided missile approach to tackling, and, most importantly in this game, Gary Brackett's precise aim for the ball in Bettis' hand. The Colts defense is no longer a liability, one that certainly has continued to improve, but has a lot of work left to avoid the kind of performance that they had in the first quarter. Is this a dominant defense? No. Is it a defense that can be counted on when the game is on the line? Yes.

The window of opportunity has closed for Colts.

With Edgerrin James, Reggie Wayne, Mike Vanderjagt, David Thornton, and Raheem Brock listed as potential free agents this off season, it will be difficult for the Colts to maintain the nucleus of players that have enabled them to get this far. The real key player, however, is definitely James.  Edge has consistently run this season without the wide-open, gaping holes that other teams make for their RBs (check out what the Bronco's do for their cadre of backs, or what the Seahawks do for Shaun Alexander). Over 7 years in Indianapolis, Edge has rushed for 9226 regular season yards, and caught passes for 2839 yards. In the Steeler's game, Edge ran 13 times for 56 yards, and caught 5 passes for 26 yards, bringing his post-season totals to 116 carries for 453 yds (3.9 yds/carry) and 24 catches for 181 yards (7.5 yards/catch). Since he has been in the league, James has averaged 4.95 yards every time he touches the ball. Edge is the player that the Colts most cannot afford to lose from this group; yet, he is also that Bill Polian is most likely not to resign. Why? Every off season, Edge has been a problem for the Colts, chosing to do his off season workouts on his own, at his Florida home, rather than joining his teammates. Has this hurt Edge's performance during the regular season? No. That said, this off season and draft brings a wealth of talent at the running back position, driving prices down. Hopefully this means that the Colts have a decent shot at retaining James, who is a vital component to this team as a RB and as a pass blocker.

Regarding Reggie Wayne, it’s not one, not two, but three or more teams that have already expressed interest -- the Bears, Eagles, and Redskins are all looking for a legitimate number one receiver, and Wayne certainly as developed into one. With courters such as these, particularly the 'Skins with free-spending Dan Snyder at the helm, the chances of the Colts retaining Wayne are slim to none. And, with Marvin Harrison and Brandon Stokley locked up to long term contracts, the Colts will likely not spend the money necessary to keep Wayne on the roster. It’s not to say that Wayne will not be missed; in 2005 he led the Colts in receptions, catching 83 passes for 1055 yards. In 2004, he led the team in receiving yards with 77 catches for 1210 yards. But the Colts have proven to be remarkably resilient in re-gearing their pass offense when it has to be changed: in 2003, the Colts ran predominant two tight-end sets; but with the loss of Marcus Pollard, they incorporated three wide receiver sets increasingly in their offense. This season saw the emergence of Brian Fletcher as a legitimate receiving threat from the TE position, along with Dallas Clark. Perhaps this signals a shift back to two TE sets for the Colts, improving both pass protection and the ability to run play action.  

Now, on to more definite losses. Mike Vanderjagt has likely spent his last season as a Colt. Given his status as the scapegoat for the Colts' loss to Pittsburgh, as well as the fact that he is unable to get touchbacks on kickoffs despite being one of the highest paid kickers in the league, the Colts will not resign Vanderjagt, leading the question -- who will be the Colts' kicker next year? Will it be journeyman kicker Jose Cortez, who proved his ability at least to kick the ball deep this season? Or will it a kicker gotten through the draft or free agency? Only time will tell. Regarding David Thornton, he is almost as good as gone. The past few seasons have seen the Colts lose Marcus Washington and Mike Peterson to better contracts because of Polian's refusal to sign players he considers "good" but not "great." Thornton absolutely fits that mold, and if Polian's past is any indication, he will be relocating this off season (only to make the Pro Bowl in a couple of years with his new team!).

So the question becomes, with these potential losses, what becomes of the Colts? Most important among all of these is the potential James departure. However, as mentioned above, given the relative talent available both through the draft and free agency, the Colts may be able to afford to keep James. What the Colts cannot afford to overlook is James' value not only as a rusher and a receiver, but his exceptional ability to pick up blitzes. Given that the offensive line has not performed up to par when it counted, James should be a keeper. Let's hope Bill Polian sees it that way as well.

Marvin Harrison is unhappy.

During and after the Colts' loss to Pittsburgh, much of the speculation in the national media revolved around three of four pictures of Marvin Harrison sitting on the sidelines, away from the rest of his teammates. It is obvious that these members of the national media have not covered Colts games. Marvin typically is not a firey wide receiver; he is no Chad Johnson or Terrell Owens. What he is a future hall of famer who quietly goes about his job. That being said, there is merit to this story. Over the last four seasons, the Colts have had seven playoff games, in which Harrison has caught 32 passes for 447 yards, averaging 4.6 catches for 63.9 yards. During the regular seasons 2002-2005, Harrison has caught a remarkable 403 balls for 5162 yards, averaging 6.3 catches/game with 80.7 yards/game. In four playoff losses, Harrison has gone a total of 15-162 (3.8-40.5 on average). Anyone other than me notice a trend here? When the going gets rough, the Colts are not going to their playmaker receiver. I cannot understand why the Colts do not incorporate Marvin Harrison into their game plan in the same manner as, lets say, the Panthers incorporate Steve Smith. There is no question that fierce competitors like Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison have noticed this trend; lets just hope they do something about it.

The Colts were out-coached.

Well, on this issue, there is no question. The Colts were out-coached; when Roethlisberger came out swinging, it was like the Colts didn't know what hit them. Where were the adjustments to close that gap in the middle that Roethelisberger was throwing darts at during the first half? Why wasn't the offensive play calling altered when Manning and company went three and out three consecutive times in the first half? What were Tony Dungy, Ron Meeks, and Tom Moore thinking? As I alluded to above, there are definite issues in the way this team is handling getting the ball to its star players in the post-season. I talked about the Marvin Harrison situation above. But what about Edgerrin James?  In four regular seasons (2002-2005), James has had 1281 carries for a remarkable 5294 yards and 207 receptions for 1466 yards, averaging 20 carries for 82.7 yards and 3.2 receptions for 23 yards, bringing per game yardage to 105.7 yards/game. In seven playoff games, he has gained 453 yards on 116 carries and 195 yards on 24 receptions, averaging 16.6 carries for 64.7 yards and 27.9 yards receiving with 3.4 receptions per game, totaling 92.6 yards/game on average. In four playoff losses, James has 55 rushes for 187 yards and 16 receptions for 117 yards, averaging 13.8 carries for 46.8 yards and 4 receptions for 29 yards. His total touches in playoff losses are approximately 18/game with total yards from scrimmage on average 75.8 yards/game while in the regular season he averaged 23.2 touches with 105.7 yards/game. There is no doubt that the Colts are not establishing and/or sticking to the run in playoff losses, much as they are not getting the ball to Marvin Harrison. This defies logic. The two biggest playmakers on the offense, who generate stratospheric numbers in the regular season, just aren't getting the touches they need to work their magic in the postseason. Without Edge getting the ball, the Colts are unable to use the play action effectively, and this negatively impacts their passing game. To be fair, in playoff losses, the Colts have fallen behind early and have abandoned the run. But the real question becomes, should they? The Colts and Peyton Manning have a tendency to get harried after falling behind or feeling pressure; this tendency has got to change. Look for Tom Moore to shoulder more of the responsibility for play-calling, and for these stars to be more involved in the offense when it counts. If this change doesn't occur, the Colts are in deep trouble. On a side note, the one thing that did stand out in the Steelers game was the Colts kickoff and punt coverage, which did very well; much of this can be attributed to Cortez kickoffs, which were deep in the opposing field, and Hunter Smith's right leg. Regardless, let's hope the Colts can continue this trend.

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